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Races · house · 2022 · Texas
house · open seat

Vicente Gonzalez vs Mayra Flores

← Texas houseTexas house →
Lean DD +3.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
69% Gonzalez (D)
31% Flores (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +3.0 · 80% CI R+9.0 → D+15.0
Actual result D+8.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 69% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+9.0 (10th pctile) to D+15.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 69% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +3.0
80% CI: R +9.0 → D +15.0 · win prob 69%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+8.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMayra Flores0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DVicente Gonzalez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-03
Mayra FloresH2TX34113 ↗
Receipts
$4.7M
Disburse
$4.7M
Cash on hand
$26.2K
Debts
$17.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
ARCHER AUTO GROUP$25.3K
WOODFOREST NATIONAL BANK$13.8K
CHARLES POTOMAC CAPITAL$11.6K
INSPERITY$9.2K
HANOVER COMPANY$8.7K
Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162 ↗
Receipts
$3.2M
Disburse
$4.3M
Cash on hand
$304.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$14.5K
Education$11.8K
Pharma / health products$8.7K
Health professionals$8.7K
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$14.5K
AMSCOT FINANCIAL$9.5K
B2Z ENGINEERING$8.7K
LINO'S PHARMACY$8.7K
SAENZ MEDICAL PHARMACY$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$30.9M
D side
$19.3M · 63%
R side
$11.5M · 37%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Gonzalez $1.1M
Against Flores $18.2M
Against Gonzalez $9.0M
For Flores $2.5M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$18.7M61%against Mayra Flores
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$4.7M15%against Vicente Gonzalez
NRCCR$4.2M14%against Vicente Gonzalez
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$917.4K3%for Mayra Flores
BIENVENIDO ACTION PACR$529.7K2%against Vicente Gonzalez
ENERGY SECURITY PACR$456.6K1%for Mayra Flores
WFP NATIONAL PACD$360.0K1%for Vicente Gonzalez

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
Tossup4
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 4
DDHQ
Tossup
Oct 16
The Economist
Lean D
Oct 31
538
Tossup
Oct 24
Inside Elections
Tossup
Nov 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-03
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks