Races · house · 2022 · Texas

house · open seat

Jasmine Crockett vs James Rodgers

← Texas house Texas house →

Safe DD +49.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Crockett (D)
1% Rodgers (R)
Win probability
Jasmine Crockett99% (D)
James Rodgers1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +49.3
80% CID+37.3 → D+61.3
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +49.3 · 80% CI D+37.3 → D+61.3
Actual result D+53.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+25) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+49.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+37.3 (10th pctile) to D+61.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +49.3

80% CI: D +37.3 → D +61.3 · win prob 99%

R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+53.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet

DJasmine Crockett0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RJames Rodgers0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

IZachariah Manning0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

LPhil Gray0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-15

Jasmine CrockettH2TX30178 ↗

Receipts

$970.0K

Disburse

$817.2K

Cash on hand

$152.8K

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$11.6K

Govt employees$7.4K

Education$5.8K

Top contributors

AME CHURCH$10.7K

WEISBROD & WEISBROD$8.6K

STATE OF TEXAS$7.4K

MATTHEWS SOUTHWEST$7.1K

FRIENDSHIP WEST CHURCH$5.9K

James RodgersOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$64.7K

Disburse

$64.7K

Cash on hand

$7.07

Debts

$70.8K

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$1.0K

Top contributors

JKS HAMPTON$5.0K

UNAKA CO INC.$2.9K

JET CENTER$2.5K

TEXAS ONCOLOGY$2.0K

VINSON & ELKINS$1.0K

Zachariah ManningOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$9.0K

Disburse

$9.2K

Cash on hand

$-28.09

Debts

$8.7K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

VARIOUS$240.11

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$14.3M

D side

$14.3M · 100%

R side

$50.6K · 0%

Top spender

PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC

For / against split

For Crockett $14.3M

Against Crockett $50.6K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	D	$7.9M	55%	for Jasmine Crockett
WEB3 FORWARD	D	$5.8M	40%	for Jasmine Crockett
TEXAS ORGANIZING PROJECT POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	D	$296.4K	2%	for Jasmine Crockett
WFP NATIONAL PAC	D	$183.9K	1%	for Jasmine Crockett
OPPORTUNITY FOR TOMORROW	D	$67.0K	0%	for Jasmine Crockett

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Oct 24

DDHQ

Safe D

Jul 19

The Economist

Safe D

Sep 27

538

Safe D

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe D

Nov 14

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Nov 10

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-15

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks