Races · house · 2022 · Texas
house · open seat
Henry Cuellar vs Cassy Garcia
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R · model 80% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.8 (10th pctile) to D+17.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 80% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +5.2
80% CI: R +6.8 → D +17.1 · win prob 80%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+13.4 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDHenry Cuellar0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RCassy Garcia0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-03Henry CuellarH2TX23082 ↗
Receipts
$4.7M
Disburse
$6.2M
Cash on hand
$44.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
LHC GROUP$19.3K
HARTMAN FOUNDATION$13.6K
LOCKTON COMPANIES$13.1K
WEST TEXAS CEMENTERS LLC$11.6K
EARL & ASSOCIATES, P.C.$11.6K
Cassy GarciaH2TX28149 ↗
Receipts
$3.5M
Disburse
$3.4M
Cash on hand
$84.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$8.7K
Health professionals · $8.7K
- Laredo Sports Medicine Clinic · $8.7K
Individuals $8.7K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$5.8K
Securities & investment · $5.8K
- Blackstone · $5.8K
Individuals $5.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
HCSS$11.6K
PARMAN CAPITAL GROUP$11.6K
WOODFOREST NATIONAL BANK$11.2K
LAREDO SPORTS MEDICINE CLINIC$8.7K
GOYA FOODS, INC$8.7K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$48.0M
D side
$22.9M · 48%
R side
$25.1M · 52%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSE MAJORITY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $16.1M | 34% | against Cassy Garcia |
| NRCC party · boosts R
| R | $16.0M | 33% | against Henry Cuellar |
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $7.0M | 15% | against Henry Cuellar |
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.6M | 5% | for Henry Cuellar |
| DCCC party · boosts D
| D | $2.5M | 5% | against Cassy Garcia |
| CHC BOLD PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $1.1M | 2% | against Cassy Garcia |
| TEXANS FOR FREEDOM super pac · boosts R
| R | $600.0K | 1% | for Cassy Garcia |
| THE SENTINEL ACTION FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $471.5K | 1% | for Cassy Garcia |
| WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $445.0K | 1% | against Henry Cuellar |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D2
Likely D · 2 raters
- The Economist · Oct 31
- 538 · Nov 7
Lean D3
Lean D · 3 raters
- DDHQ · Oct 16
- Inside Elections · Oct 6
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 6
Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 6
The Cook Political Report
TossupDDHQ
Lean DThe Economist
Likely D538
Likely DInside Elections
Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-03
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks