Races · house · 2022 · Texas

house · open seat

John Lira vs Tony Gonzales

← Texas house Texas house →

Safe RR +17.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Lira (D)
99% Gonzales (R)
Win probability
John Lira1% (D)
Tony Gonzales99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +17.7
80% CIR+29.7 → R+5.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +17.7 · 80% CI R+29.7 → R+5.7
Actual result R+17.1 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+17.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+29.7 (10th pctile) to R+5.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +17.7

80% CI: R +29.7 → R +5.7 · win prob 1%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+17.1
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet

RTony Gonzales0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DJohn Lira0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

IFrank Lopez Jr.0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-03

Tony GonzalesH0TX35015 ↗

Receipts

$4.3M

Disburse

$4.0M

Cash on hand

$354.4K

Debts

Top industries

Securities & investment$18.4K

Top contributors

INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$131.9K

RIATA CORPORATE GROUP$19.0K

BLACKSTONE$18.4K

THE KENT COMPANIES$11.6K

LMBI LP$11.6K

John LiraOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$675.1K

Disburse

$674.9K

Cash on hand

$204.01

Debts

Top industries

Securities & investment$8.9K

Oil & gas$3.9K

Top contributors

BAIN CAPITAL$8.9K

BERKSHIRE PARTNERS$4.9K

HAYES & HUNTER$4.4K

MODZY$4.1K

BESTWAY OILFIELD$3.9K

Frank Lopez Jr.OWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$34.4K

Disburse

$33.4K

Cash on hand

Debts

$10.0K

Top industries

Oil & gas$500

Govt employees$250

Top contributors

INFO REQ, BEST EFFORT$9.3K

OIL & GAS INDUSTRY$500

US AIR FORCE$250

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$3.5M

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$3.5M · 100%

Top spender

WITH HONOR FUND, INC.

For / against split

For Gonzales $3.5M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
WITH HONOR FUND, INC.	R	$2.5M	70%	for Tony Gonzales
HISPANIC LEADERSHIP ALLIANCE	R	$549.7K	16%	for Tony Gonzales
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$463.5K	13%	for Tony Gonzales
AMERICAN VETERANS SUPPORT GROUP PAC	R	$27.3K	1%	for Tony Gonzales
THE GUARDIAN FUND	R	$11.5K	0%	for Tony Gonzales

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R6

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jan 25

DDHQ

Safe R

Jul 19

The Economist

Safe R

Sep 27

538

Safe R

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe R

Aug 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Apr 18

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-03

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks