Races · house · 2022 · TX

house · open seat

Jamie Kaye Jordan vs Troy Nehls

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Likely R — · 0 polls · 0 markets Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-03

Total IE spending

$163K

For candidates

$163K

Against candidates

Latest filing: 12/3/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E

Troy Nehls (R)

$163K for · $9 against

Cash on hand

$392K

Total raised (cycle)

$1.4M

Total spent

$1.0M

Debts

$127

Source: FEC

$161K for CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PAC Super PAC
$1K for THE GUARDIAN FUND PAC
$302 for WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC Super PAC
$100 for HOUSE FREEDOM FUND PAC
$98 for TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC Super PAC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi