Races · house · 2022 · Texas
house · open seat
Claudia Zapata vs Chip Roy
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.6 (10th pctile) to R+11.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.6
80% CI: R +35.6 → R +11.6 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+25.7 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRChip Roy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DClaudia Zapata0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-03Chip RoyH8TX21307 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$1.2M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
FRONTIER TRUCK GEAR$17.4K
BENNETT VENTURES LP$11.6K
SAULSBURY$11.6K
GOLDCREST CAPITAL$9.3K
SELF (FOR TARA)$9.3K
Claudia Zapata
Receipts
$118.2K
Disburse
$101.7K
Cash on hand
$16.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Restaurants & drinking$1.0K
Restaurants & drinking · $1.0K
- Vinnys Italian Restaurant · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Oil & gas$600
Oil & gas · $600
- Hh Oil Tools INC. · $600
Individuals $600 · PACs $0
Govt employees$600
Govt employees · $600
- State of Texas · $600
Individuals $600 · PACs $0
Electric utilities$500
Electric utilities · $500
- Utility Company · $500
Individuals $500 · PACs $0
Top contributors
NG INVESTMENTS$4.9K
PIONEER WEALTH$1.0K
VINNYS ITALIAN RESTAURANT$1.0K
WIPRO$1.0K
HH OIL TOOLS INC.$600
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$135.5K
D side
$655.91 · 0%
R side
$134.9K · 100%
Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $65.2K | 48% | for Chip Roy |
| PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE super pac · boosts R
| R | $50.0K | 37% | for Chip Roy |
| GOA VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $8.7K | 6% | for Chip Roy |
| CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $7.7K | 6% | for Chip Roy |
| HOUSE FREEDOM FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $2.8K | 2% | for Chip Roy |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 24
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Nov 14
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 10
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-03
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks