Races · house · 2022 · Texas
house · open seat
Joaquin Castro vs Kyle Sinclair
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+12) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+27.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+15.2 (10th pctile) to D+39.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +27.2
80% CI: D +15.2 → D +39.2 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+36.9 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetDJoaquin Castro0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RKyle Sinclair0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IAdam Jonasz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-03Kyle SinclairH2TX20096 ↗
Receipts
$293.1K
Disburse
$291.6K
Cash on hand
$1.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$2.9K
Health professionals · $2.9K
- 21st Century Healthcare, INC · $2.9K
Individuals $2.9K · PACs $0
Top contributors
AGERON ENERGY$7.8K
SOUTH TEXAS RENAL CENTER$5.0K
PAM HEALTH$4.9K
SENTINEL PEAK CAPITAL PARTNERS$2.9K
21ST CENTURY HEALTHCARE, INC$2.9K
Joaquin CastroH2TX35011 ↗
Receipts
$682.1K
Disburse
$635.1K
Cash on hand
$162.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$3.0K
Education · $3.0K
- Stanford University · $3.0K
Individuals $3.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
AHCV$5.8K
HARTMAN FOUNDATION$5.8K
FAROUK SYSTEMS$5.8K
TUSK HOLDINGS$5.8K
EXILE CONTENT$5.7K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$6.1K
D side
$63.18 · 1%
R side
$6.0K · 99%
Top spender
REAL REPUBLICAN REF…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REAL REPUBLICAN REFORM PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $6.0K | 98% | for Kyle Sinclair |
| TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $28.42 | 0% | for Kyle Sinclair |
| HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN EQUALITY VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $22.5 | 0% | for Joaquin Castro |
| HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $22 | 0% | for Joaquin Castro |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Joaquin Castro |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $8.68 | 0% | for Joaquin Castro |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D6
Safe D · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 24
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Nov 14
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 10
The Cook Political Report
Safe DDDHQ
Safe DThe Economist
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-03
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks