Races · house · 2022 · Texas
house · open seat
Robin Fulford vs Dan Crenshaw
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.7 (10th pctile) to R+15.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.7
80% CI: R +39.7 → R +15.7 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+31.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRDan Crenshaw0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DRobin Fulford0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-03Dan CrenshawH8TX02166 ↗
Receipts
$15.9M
Disburse
$16.6M
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Oil & gas$8.7K
Oil & gas · $8.7K
- Petroleum Wholesale · $8.7K
Individuals $8.7K · PACs $0
Top contributors
COREY CONSTRUCTION$12.3K
MORAN RESOURCES$11.6K
WLJ CAPITAL$11.5K
HUNTSMAN$10.9K
UTHEALTH$10.8K
Robin Fulford
Receipts
$231.5K
Disburse
$208.3K
Cash on hand
$23.2K
Debts
$15.6K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$1.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $1.5K
- Norton Rose Fulbright US LLP · $1.5K
Individuals $1.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
APACHE CORP$5.8K
ARM ENERGY$5.8K
VINMAR INTERNATIONAL$2.9K
RT SPECIALTY$2.9K
FREQUENCY THERAPEUTICS$2.5K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$105.1K
D side
$3.5K · 3%
R side
$101.6K · 97%
Top spender
CLEARPATH ACTION FU…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $100.0K | 95% | for Dan Crenshaw |
| TEXANS FOR TRUE CONSERVATIVES pac · boosts D
| D | $1.9K | 2% | against Dan Crenshaw |
| SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) pac · boosts D
| D | $1.6K | 2% | against Dan Crenshaw |
| THE GUARDIAN FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $902 | 1% | for Dan Crenshaw |
| TEXAS PATRIOTS PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $599.97 | 1% | for Dan Crenshaw |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 24
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Nov 14
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 10
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-03
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks