Races · house · 2022 · Texas

house · open seat

Texas house

← Texas house Texas house →

Lean RR +3.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
26% Vallejo (D)
74% (R)
Win probability
Michelle Vallejo26% (D)
Republican74% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +3.9
80% CIR+15.8 → D+8.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +3.9 · 80% CI R+15.8 → D+8.2
Actual result Monica De La Cruz +8.5 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 74% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+3.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+15.8 (10th pctile) to D+8.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 74% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +3.9

80% CI: R +15.8 → D +8.2 · win prob 26%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Monica De La Cruz +8.5
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

DMichelle Vallejo0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-17

Michelle VallejoH2TX15203 ↗

Receipts

$2.3M

Disburse

$2.3M

Cash on hand

$11.7K

Debts

$100.0K

Top industries

Education$11.6K

Internet$6.9K

Pharma / health products$5.8K

Top contributors

CONTRACTOR$10.3K

PULGA LOS PORTALES$8.7K

GOOGLE$6.9K

LIBERTY AUTO SALES INC.$5.9K

SAENZ PHARMACY$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$5.7M

D side

$3.5M · 61%

R side

$2.2M · 39%

Top spender

WFP NATIONAL PAC

For / against split

For Vallejo $3.5M

Against Vallejo $2.2M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
WFP NATIONAL PAC	D	$1.8M	32%	for Michelle Vallejo
NRCC	R	$1.7M	30%	against Michelle Vallejo
COMMUNICATIONS WORKERS OF AMERICA WORKING VOICES	D	$900.0K	16%	for Michelle Vallejo
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC	R	$478.8K	8%	against Michelle Vallejo
TEXAS ORGANIZING PROJECT POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	D	$300.0K	5%	for Michelle Vallejo

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tossup1

Lean R3

Likely R2

The Cook Political Report

Likely R

Oct 4

DDHQ

Lean R

Oct 16

The Economist

Lean R

Sep 27

538

Tossup

Sep 22

Inside Elections

Lean R

Aug 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely R

Jun 14

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel

May 11, 2026Tilt Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-17

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks