Races · house · 2022 · Texas

house · open seat

Linda Nuno vs Michael McCaul

← Texas house Texas house →

Safe RR +26.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Nuno (D)
99% McCaul (R)
Win probability
Linda Nuno1% (D)
Michael McCaul99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +26.5
80% CIR+38.5 → R+14.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +26.5 · 80% CI R+38.5 → R+14.5
Actual result R+29.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+26.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.5 (10th pctile) to R+14.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +26.5

80% CI: R +38.5 → R +14.5 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+29.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet

RMichael McCaul0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DLinda Nuno0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

LBill Kelsey0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-03

Michael McCaulH4TX10093 ↗

Receipts

$2.7M

Disburse

$2.5M

Cash on hand

$260.8K

Debts

Top industries

Pharma / health products$11.6K

Top contributors

INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$80.8K

BERGEN PAIN MANAGEMENT PC$12.4K

QUIK DRUGS PHARMACY$11.6K

HERITAGE TITLE COMPANY OF AUSTIN INC.$11.6K

FOUNDERS FUND$11.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$371.7K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$371.7K · 100%

Top spender

HUMANE SOCIETY LEGI…

For / against split

For McCaul $371.7K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HUMANE SOCIETY LEGISLATIVE FUND	R	$330.6K	89%	for Michael McCaul
CARE ACTION NOW INC.	R	$23.1K	6%	for Michael McCaul
FIREFIGHTERS COALITION OF AMERICA PAC	R	$18.0K	5%	for Michael McCaul
TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	R	$67.1	0%	for Michael McCaul

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R6

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Oct 24

DDHQ

Safe R

Jul 19

The Economist

Safe R

Sep 27

538

Safe R

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe R

Nov 14

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Nov 10

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-03

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks