NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2022 · Tennessee
house · open seat

Odessa Kelly vs Mark Green

← Tennessee houseTennessee house →
Safe RR +22.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Kelly (D)
99% Green (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +22.5 · 80% CI R+34.5 → R+10.5
Actual result R+21.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.5 (10th pctile) to R+10.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.5
80% CI: R +34.5 → R +10.5 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+21.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMark Green0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DOdessa Kelly0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ISteven J. Hooper0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-14
Odessa KellyH2TN05305 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Mark GreenH8TN07076 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$127.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$9.5K
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$59.5K
ALL AMERICAN CONTAINERS$15.0K
LITTLE PIPING MECHANICAL LLC$11.6K
ADVANCE FINANCIAL$11.6K
COHEN KLINGENSTEIN LLC$11.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$315.3K
D side
$313.0K · 99%
R side
$2.3K · 1%
Top spender
JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PAC
For / against split
For Kelly $313.0K
For Green $2.3K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PACD$190.0K60%for Odessa Kelly
TENNESSEE IMMIGRANT AND REFUGEE RIGHTS COALITION VOTES ACTION PACD$103.7K33%for Odessa Kelly
THE EQUITY ALLIANCE FUND ACTION PACD$19.3K6%for Odessa Kelly
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$1.4K0%for Mark Green
THE GUARDIAN FUNDR$9020%for Mark Green

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Feb 6
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 27
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
May 22
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 7

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-14
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks