Races · house · 2022 · Rhode Island

house · open seat

Seth Magaziner vs Allan Fung

← Rhode Island house South Carolina house →

Likely DD +7.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
88% Magaziner (D)
12% Fung (R)
Win probability
Seth Magaziner88% (D)
Allan Fung12% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +7.2
80% CIR+4.8 → D+19.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +7.2 · 80% CI R+4.8 → D+19.1
Actual result D+3.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 88% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.8 (10th pctile) to D+19.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 88% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +7.2

80% CI: R +4.8 → D +19.1 · win prob 88%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+3.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DSeth Magaziner0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RAllan Fung0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-29

Seth MagazinerH2RI02184 ↗

Receipts

$3.9M

Disburse

$3.9M

Cash on hand

$40.6K

Debts

$74.3K

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$36.4K

Education$15.5K

Govt employees$10.4K

Top contributors

ADLER POLLOCK & SHEEHAN$19.6K

BROWN UNIVERSITY$15.5K

LOCKE LORD LLP$14.6K

CAPITOL CITY GROUP$12.5K

MOTLEY RICE LLC$11.8K

Allan FungH2RI02226 ↗

Receipts

$2.2M

Disburse

$2.2M

Cash on hand

$3.0K

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$9.7K

Securities & investment$8.7K

Govt employees$8.0K

Top contributors

PANNONE LOPES DEVERUAX & O'GARA LLC$17.4K

TASCA FORD$14.5K

PAUL MASSE CHEVROLET$11.6K

LAWYER$9.7K

BLACKSTONE$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$18.6M

D side

$6.1M · 33%

R side

$12.6M · 67%

Top spender

CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…

For / against split

For Magaziner $537.2K

Against Fung $5.5M

Against Magaziner $12.4M

For Fung $208.3K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$7.4M	39%	against Seth Magaziner
NRCC	R	$4.7M	25%	against Seth Magaziner
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$3.9M	21%	against Allan Fung
BRIGHT FUTURE RI	D	$633.7K	3%	against Allan Fung
DCCC	D	$583.7K	3%	against Allan Fung
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)	D	$488.4K	3%	for Seth Magaziner
OCEAN STATE FORWARD	R	$408.8K	2%	against Seth Magaziner
LCV VICTORY FUND	D	$356.4K	2%	against Allan Fung
CONSERVATIVE ACTION COUNCIL INC	R	$73.9K	0%	against Seth Magaziner

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tossup5

Lean R1

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Jun 27

DDHQ

Tossup

Oct 27

The Economist

Tossup

Oct 11

538

Tossup

Oct 11

Inside Elections

Tossup

Nov 2

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-29

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks