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Races · house · 2022 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat

Matt Cartwright vs Jim Bognet

← Pennsylvania housePennsylvania house →
Tilt RR +1.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
43% Cartwright (D)
57% Bognet (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +1.0 · 80% CI R+13.0 → D+11.0
Actual result D+2.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 57% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+4) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+1.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+13.0 (10th pctile) to D+11.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 57% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +1.0
80% CI: R +13.0 → D +11.0 · win prob 43%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+2.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMatt Cartwright0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJim Bognet0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-23
Jim BognetH0PA08221 ↗
Receipts
$3.0M
Disburse
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$96.1K
Debts
$6.0K
Top industries
Securities & investment$19.4K
Oil & gas$9.7K
Top contributors
KAVLICK ENTERPRISES$14.5K
BLACKSTONE$12.6K
SAULSBURY INDUSTRIES$11.6K
LEEWARD$11.6K
BOGNET CONST ASSOC.$11.6K
Matt CartwrightH2PA17079 ↗
Receipts
$5.4M
Disburse
$5.5M
Cash on hand
$52.6K
Debts
$242.8K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$43.2K
Internet$13.3K
Securities & investment$9.7K
Top contributors
O'DONNELL LAW OFFICES$22.4K
GENTEX$13.4K
GENTEX CORPORATION$13.3K
LIBERTY TRUCK CENTER$11.8K
METIER LAW FIRM$11.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$41.7M
D side
$24.8M · 60%
R side
$16.8M · 40%
Top spender
NRCC
For / against split
For Cartwright $519.4K
Against Bognet $24.3M
Against Cartwright $16.0M
For Bognet $843.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NRCCR$14.2M34%against Matt Cartwright
DCCCD$12.2M29%against Jim Bognet
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$10.2M25%against Jim Bognet
NRDC ACTION VOTESD$1.9M4%against Jim Bognet
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$1.8M4%against Matt Cartwright
AMERICAN LEADERSHIP PACR$341.5K1%for Jim Bognet
CATHOLICVOTE.ORG CANDIDATE FUNDR$256.3K1%for Jim Bognet
WORKING AMERICAD$222.8K1%for Matt Cartwright
NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEED$190.2K0%for Matt Cartwright
INDIVISIBLE ACTIOND$36.2K0%for Matt Cartwright

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup5
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Feb 22
DDHQ
Tossup
Sep 30
The Economist
Tossup
Sep 27
538
Tossup
Nov 7
Inside Elections
Tossup
Mar 10
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Tilt Rmodel
May 15, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks