Races · house · 2022 · Pennsylvania

house · open seat

Susan Wild vs Lisa Scheller

← Pennsylvania house Pennsylvania house →

Likely DD +12.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
98% Wild (D)
2% Scheller (R)
Win probability
Susan Wild98% (D)
Lisa Scheller2% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +12.6
80% CID+0.6 → D+24.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +12.6 · 80% CI D+0.6 → D+24.6
Actual result D+2.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 98% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+0.6 (10th pctile) to D+24.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +12.6

80% CI: D +0.6 → D +24.6 · win prob 98%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+2.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DSusan Wild0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RLisa Scheller0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-20

Lisa SchellerH0PA07132 ↗

Receipts

$6.4M

Disburse

$6.4M

Cash on hand

$2.7K

Debts

$3.4M

Top industries

Crop production$11.6K

Real estate$10.9K

Top contributors

NA$41.1K

RELIABLE$17.4K

E. SCHNEIDER & SONS INC.$14.5K

MOUNTAIRE CORP$11.6K

KOCHA'S TURKEY FARMS$11.6K

Susan WildH8PA15229 ↗

Receipts

$7.0M

Disburse

$7.0M

Cash on hand

$54.0K

Debts

Top industries

Education$58.2K

Computers / electronics$17.9K

Internet$16.3K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA$33.1K

GOOGLE$16.3K

LEHIGH UNIVERSITY$15.1K

ORASURE TECHNOLOGIES INC.$13.3K

LVHN$12.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$61.4M

D side

$35.8M · 58%

R side

$25.6M · 42%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

For Wild $2.9M

Against Scheller $32.9M

Against Wild $25.5M

For Scheller $65.3K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$17.8M	29%	against Lisa Scheller
DCCC	D	$14.0M	23%	against Lisa Scheller
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$12.7M	21%	against Susan Wild
NRCC	R	$10.2M	17%	against Susan Wild
WFW ACTION FUND, INC.	R	$1.8M	3%	against Susan Wild
PA LAWYER FUND	D	$1.2M	2%	for Susan Wild
WOMEN VOTE!	D	$938.2K	2%	against Lisa Scheller
DEFEND US PAC	R	$727.7K	1%	against Susan Wild
AFSCME WORKING FAMILIES FUND	D	$96.0K	0%	against Lisa Scheller
RETIRED AMERICANS PAC	D	$93.2K	0%	against Lisa Scheller

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tossup5

Lean R1

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Oct 4

DDHQ

Tossup

Jul 19

The Economist

Tossup

Sep 27

538

Tossup

Aug 2

Inside Elections

Tossup

Mar 10

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Tilt Dmodel

May 15, 2026Tossupmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-20

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks