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Races · house · 2022 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat

Chrissy Houlahan vs Guy Ciarrocchi

← Pennsylvania housePennsylvania house →
Safe DD +15.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Houlahan (D)
1% Ciarrocchi (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +15.3 · 80% CI D+3.3 → D+27.3
Actual result D+16.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+15.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+3.3 (10th pctile) to D+27.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +15.3
80% CI: D +3.3 → D +27.3 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+16.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DChrissy Houlahan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGuy Ciarrocchi0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08
Chrissy HoulahanH8PA06087 ↗
Receipts
$4.8M
Disburse
$5.0M
Cash on hand
$3.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$21.3K
Lawyers / law firms$21.0K
Education$16.1K
TV / movies / music$12.7K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA$16.1K
COMCAST$12.7K
BLANK ROME LLP$12.1K
FISHER BROTHERS$11.6K
MORGAN LEWIS & BOCKIUS LLP$11.6K
Guy CiarrocchiH2PA06197 ↗
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$37.87
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
DEVAULT FOODS$11.6K
LAMB MCERLANE$11.2K
BENTLEY SYSTEMS$8.7K
STILLMAN VOLVO CARS$8.7K
MERIDIAN BANK$8.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.8M
D side
$1.7M · 96%
R side
$70.0K · 4%
Top spender
SHIELD PAC
For / against split
For Houlahan $1.7M
Against Houlahan $246.22
For Ciarrocchi $69.8K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SHIELD PACD$1.0M57%for Chrissy Houlahan
VOTEVETSD$561.9K31%for Chrissy Houlahan
WITH HONOR FUND, INC.D$105.7K6%for Chrissy Houlahan
LV STRONGR$69.5K4%for Guy Ciarrocchi
MOMSRISING TOGETHERD$22.5K1%for Chrissy Houlahan
DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PAD$8.9K0%for Chrissy Houlahan
PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PACR$246.220%for Guy Ciarrocchi

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
Likely D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Feb 22
DDHQ
Likely D
Oct 31
The Economist
Likely D
Oct 31
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Mar 10
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Mar 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks