Races · house · 2022 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat
Madeleine Dean vs Christian Nascimento
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.5 (10th pctile) to D+31.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +19.4
80% CI: D +7.5 → D +31.4 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+22.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDMadeleine Dean0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RChristian Nascimento0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-11Madeleine DeanH8PA04116 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$704.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$5.8K
Lawyers / law firms · $5.8K
- Stradley Ronon Stevens & Young, LLP · $5.8K
Individuals $5.8K · PACs $0
Electric utilities$5.8K
Electric utilities · $5.8K
- Utility Line Service · $5.8K
Individuals $5.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BET INVESTMENTS$8.7K
KING & SPALDING$8.6K
KBRA$7.5K
NASDAQ$7.0K
LINDY PROPERTY MANAGEMENT$5.9K
Christian NascimentoH2PA04226 ↗
Receipts
$239.4K
Disburse
$238.0K
Cash on hand
$1.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
TV / movies / music$7.4K
TV / movies / music · $7.4K
- Comcast · $7.4K
Individuals $7.4K · PACs $0
Real estate$5.4K
Real estate · $5.4K
- Deronja Real Estate · $5.4K
Individuals $5.4K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$4.3K
Lawyers / law firms · $4.3K
- Hugh Robert Law Office · $4.3K
Individuals $4.3K · PACs $0
Top contributors
COMCAST$7.4K
SNOWBERGER ENT.$5.9K
PROMOTION DYNAMICS$5.8K
SOUTHERN CO. SERVICES, INC$5.8K
SNOWBERGER ENT$5.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$37.4K
D side
$36.9K · 99%
R side
$492.44 · 1%
Top spender
NATIONAL ASSOCIATIO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts D
| D | $25.9K | 69% | for Madeleine Dean |
| DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA pac · boosts D
| D | $8.9K | 24% | for Madeleine Dean |
| INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS LOCAL 98 COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION pac · boosts D
| D | $1.1K | 3% | for Madeleine Dean |
| JDCA PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $989 | 3% | for Madeleine Dean |
| PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $492.44 | 1% | against Madeleine Dean |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D6
Safe D · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Feb 22
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Mar 10
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe DDDHQ
Safe DThe Economist
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-11
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks