Races · house · 2022 · PA
house · open seat
Madeleine Dean vs Christian Nascimento
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Likely D
likely-d
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-11Total IE spending
$37K
For candidates
$37K
Against candidates
$246
Latest filing: 11/11/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
Source: FEC Schedule E
Madeleine Dean (D)
$37K for ·
$246 against
Cash on hand
$705K
Total raised (cycle)
$2.1M
Total spent
$1.9M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
- $26K for NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE PAC
- $9K for DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA PAC
- $1K for INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS LOCAL 98 COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION PAC
- $989 for JDCA PAC Super PAC
- $246 against PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC PAC
$246 for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$1K
Total raised (cycle)
$239K
Total spent
$238K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
- $246 for PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC PAC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi