Races · house · 2022 · Pennsylvania

house · open seat

Chris Deluzio vs Jeremy Shaffer

← Pennsylvania house Rhode Island house →

Likely DD +10.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
96% Deluzio (D)
4% Shaffer (R)
Win probability
Chris Deluzio96% (D)
Jeremy Shaffer4% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +10.5
80% CIR+1.5 → D+22.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +10.5 · 80% CI R+1.5 → D+22.5
Actual result D+6.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 96% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.5 (10th pctile) to D+22.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 96% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +10.5

80% CI: R +1.5 → D +22.5 · win prob 96%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+6.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DChris Deluzio0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RJeremy Shaffer0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-19

Jeremy ShafferH2PA17160 ↗

Receipts

$2.8M

Disburse

$2.7M

Cash on hand

$64.6K

Debts

$1.0M

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

BENTLEY SYSTEMS$49.9K

ANSYS$12.2K

VIDEORAY LLC$11.6K

CONCAST$11.6K

THE STANTON PARK GROUP$8.7K

Chris DeluzioH2PA17103 ↗

Receipts

$3.3M

Disburse

$3.3M

Cash on hand

$22.1K

Debts

$24.0K

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$50.6K

Education$13.7K

Computers / electronics$6.9K

Top contributors

WACHTELL LIPTON ROSEN & KATZ$20.7K

UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH$13.7K

GIANT EAGLE, INC.$11.2K

AKIN GUMP STRAUSS HAUER & FELD LLP$9.3K

LA PRIMA ESPRESSO COMPANY$9.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$25.6M

D side

$22.6M · 88%

R side

$3.0M · 12%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

For Deluzio $237.8K

Against Shaffer $22.3M

Against Deluzio $3.4K

For Shaffer $3.0M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$15.9M	62%	against Jeremy Shaffer
DCCC	D	$4.6M	18%	against Jeremy Shaffer
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$1.9M	7%	for Jeremy Shaffer
VOTEVETS	D	$1.6M	6%	against Jeremy Shaffer
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$995.0K	4%	for Jeremy Shaffer
FOOD AND WATER ACTION	D	$93.8K	0%	for Chris Deluzio
CENTER FOR ESSENTIAL INFORMATION	D	$64.5K	0%	for Chris Deluzio
FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	D	$58.7K	0%	for Chris Deluzio
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$20.8K	0%	for Chris Deluzio

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tossup4

Lean R2

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Feb 22

DDHQ

Lean R

Oct 30

The Economist

Tossup

Oct 31

538

Tossup

Oct 24

Inside Elections

Tossup

Aug 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-19

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks