Races · house · 2022 · PA
house · open seat
Dan Pastore vs Mike Kelly
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Likely R
likely-r
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-19Total IE spending
$19K
For candidates
$11K
Against candidates
$7K
Latest filing: 10/19/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
Source: FEC Schedule E
Mike Kelly (R)
$3K for ·
$7K against
Cash on hand
$899K
Total raised (cycle)
$1.3M
Total spent
$1.4M
Debts
$95K
Source: FEC
- $7K against PA COMMON SENSE Super PAC
- $2K for NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND PAC
- $246 for PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC PAC
- $9 against PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES Super PAC
Dan Pastore (D)
$9K for ·
$246 against
Cash on hand
$6K
Total raised (cycle)
$866K
Total spent
$860K
Debts
$320K
Source: FEC
- $9K for DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA PAC
- $246 against PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC PAC
- $10 for SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION Super PAC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi