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Races · house · 2022 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat

Mike Molesevich vs Glenn Thompson

← Pennsylvania housePennsylvania house →
Safe RR +34.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Molesevich (D)
99% Thompson (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +34.7 · 80% CI R+46.7 → R+22.7
Actual result R+39.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+19) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+34.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+46.7 (10th pctile) to R+22.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +34.7
80% CI: R +46.7 → R +22.7 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+39.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RGlenn Thompson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMike Molesevich0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-27
Glenn ThompsonH8PA05071 ↗
Receipts
$2.7M
Disburse
$2.4M
Cash on hand
$353.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Oil & gas$8.0K
Top contributors
NULTON DIAGNOSTIC AND TREATMENT$8.7K
KRIEBEL GAS$8.0K
THE RUSSELL GROUP$7.8K
NORTHWEST SAVINGS BANK$7.3K
ACCU WEATHER$6.2K
Mike MolesevichH2PA15131 ↗
Receipts
$50.0K
Disburse
$50.0K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$250
Top contributors
REITRED$250

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$32.7K
D side
$3.5K · 11%
R side
$29.2K · 89%
Top spender
CITIZENS FOR RESPON…
For / against split
For Molesevich $3.5K
For Thompson $29.2K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CITIZENS FOR RESPONSIBLE ENERGY SOLUTIONS INC.R$26.0K80%for Glenn Thompson
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$3.0K9%for Glenn Thompson
DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PAD$2.1K7%for Mike Molesevich
UNION COUNTY DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEED$678.42%for Mike Molesevich
RURAL FREEDOM NETWORKD$657.982%for Mike Molesevich
PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PACR$246.221%for Glenn Thompson

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Feb 22
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 27
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
Mar 10
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Mar 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-27
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks