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Races · house · 2022 · Pennsylvania
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Mercury Public Affairs vs Mike Doyle

← Pennsylvania housePennsylvania house →
Lean DD +3.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
69% Affairs (D)
31% Doyle (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +3.0 · 80% CI R+9.0 → D+15.0
Actual result D+12.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 69% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+10) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+9.0 (10th pctile) to D+15.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 69% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +3.0
80% CI: R +9.0 → D +15.0 · win prob 69%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+12.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMercury Public Affairs0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMike Doyle0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-28
Mike DoyleH2PA12070 ↗
Receipts
$205.1K
Disburse
$205.1K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$5.8K
Education$2.9K
Top contributors
AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL FELT$5.8K
CONCAST METALS$5.8K
BRUCE E. DICE & ASSOCIATES, PC$3.6K
WABTEC CORPORATION$3.1K
DWD MECHANICAL CONTRACTOR, INC.$2.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.6M
D side
$1.5M · 97%
R side
$50.0K · 3%
Top spender
WOMEN VOTE!
For / against split
For Lee $1.4M
Against Doyle $130.1K
Against Lee $49.0K
For Doyle $996.22
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
WOMEN VOTE!D$130.1K8%against Mike Doyle
CITZENS FOR AMERICAN ENERGY FEDERAL PACR$7500%for Mike Doyle
PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PACR$246.220%for Mike Doyle

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D2
Likely D4
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Jun 27
DDHQ
Likely D
Oct 27
The Economist
Safe D
Nov 4
538
Safe D
Oct 26
Inside Elections
Likely D
Nov 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Oct 18

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Lean Dmodel
Jun 22, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Tilt Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks