Races · house · 2022 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat
Shamaine Daniels vs Scott Perry
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R · model 98% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+12.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+24.5 (10th pctile) to R+0.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +12.5
80% CI: R +24.5 → R +0.5 · win prob 2%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+7.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRScott Perry0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DShamaine Daniels0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-15Scott PerryH2PA04135 ↗
Receipts
$3.0M
Disburse
$3.0M
Cash on hand
$173.1K
Debts
$253.9K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
DE GROOTE FINANCIAL GROUP LLC$13.3K
HOUSEWIFE$12.1K
SAULSBURY INDUSTRIES$11.6K
MILLER & LONG CO. INC.$11.6K
MI WINDOWS AND DOORS LLC$10.0K
Shamaine DanielsH2PA10124 ↗
Receipts
$414.3K
Disburse
$412.7K
Cash on hand
$1.6K
Debts
$4.7K
Top industries
Education$3.0K
Education · $3.0K
- Penn State University · $3.0K
Individuals $3.0K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$2.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $2.5K
- Sullivan & Cromwell · $2.5K
Individuals $2.5K · PACs $0
Real estate$2.5K
Real estate · $2.5K
- Rosewein Realty · $2.5K
Individuals $2.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
HEALTH MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES$3.8K
PENN STATE UNIVERSITY$3.0K
FRY COMMUNICATIONS INC$3.0K
ABEL PERSONNEL$2.9K
K ROWE INVESTMENTS LLC$2.9K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$3.9M
D side
$187.3K · 5%
R side
$3.7M · 95%
Top spender
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $2.5M | 63% | for Scott Perry |
| HOUSE FREEDOM FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $1.2M | 30% | for Scott Perry |
| CASA IN ACTION PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $93.2K | 2% | for Shamaine Daniels |
| INDIVISIBLE ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $81.0K | 2% | against Scott Perry |
| GOA VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $76.7K | 2% | for Scott Perry |
| THE GUARDIAN FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $16.8K | 0% | for Scott Perry |
| DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA pac · boosts D
| D | $11.1K | 0% | for Shamaine Daniels |
| PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $492.4 | 0% | against Shamaine Daniels |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- The Economist · Sep 27
Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · May 25
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Mar 10
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Apr 18
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Likely R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-15
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks