Races · house · 2022 · Pennsylvania

house · open seat

Ashley Ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick

← Oregon house Pennsylvania house →

Likely RR +6.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
15% Ehasz (D)
85% Fitzpatrick (R)
Win probability
Ashley Ehasz15% (D)
Brian Fitzpatrick85% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +6.2
80% CIR+18.1 → D+5.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +6.2 · 80% CI R+18.1 → D+5.8
Actual result R+9.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 85% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+6.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+18.1 (10th pctile) to D+5.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 85% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +6.2

80% CI: R +18.1 → D +5.8 · win prob 15%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+9.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RBrian Fitzpatrick0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DAshley Ehasz0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08

Brian FitzpatrickH6PA08277 ↗

Receipts

$4.6M

Disburse

$3.1M

Cash on hand

$1.5M

Debts

$62.7K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

WCAS$21.3K

ELB CAPITAL MANAGEMENT$14.2K

BIG CAT RESCUE$11.6K

NOT IN WORKFORCE$11.6K

BLUFF POINT$10.1K

Ashley EhaszH2PA01099 ↗

Receipts

$970.5K

Disburse

$964.4K

Cash on hand

$6.1K

Debts

Top industries

Pharma / health products$10.1K

Computers / electronics$5.8K

Govt employees$3.6K

Top contributors

DELOITTE$9.2K

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN FRANCISCO$5.8K

RESIDEO$5.8K

MERCK & CO.$5.6K

MERCK$4.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$1.3M

D side

$621.1K · 47%

R side

$692.4K · 53%

Top spender

PLANNED PARENTHOOD …

For / against split

For Ehasz $172.5K

Against Fitzpatrick $448.7K

Against Ehasz $246.22

For Fitzpatrick $692.2K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$399.8K	30%	against Brian Fitzpatrick
DEFENDING MAIN STREET SUPERPAC INC.	R	$227.4K	17%	for Brian Fitzpatrick
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$194.5K	15%	for Brian Fitzpatrick
EDF ACTION VOTES	R	$144.2K	11%	for Brian Fitzpatrick
LOSERS AND SUCKERS VOTE	D	$120.0K	9%	against Brian Fitzpatrick
DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	D	$8.9K	1%	for Ashley Ehasz
INDIVISIBLE ACTION	D	$2.7K	0%	for Ashley Ehasz
JDCA PAC	D	$1.5K	0%	for Ashley Ehasz
PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC	R	$246.22	0%	against Ashley Ehasz

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R2

Safe R4

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

May 25

DDHQ

Safe R

Jul 19

The Economist

Likely R

Sep 27

538

Safe R

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe R

Aug 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely R

Mar 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks