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Races · house · 2022 · Oregon
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Andrea Salinas vs Mike Erickson

← Oregon housePennsylvania house →
Likely DD +14.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Salinas (D)
1% Erickson (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +14.3 · 80% CI D+2.3 → D+26.3
Actual result D+2.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+14.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+2.3 (10th pctile) to D+26.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +14.3
80% CI: D +2.3 → D +26.3 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+2.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DAndrea Salinas0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMike Erickson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28
Andrea SalinasH2OR06066 ↗
Receipts
$3.4M
Disburse
$3.4M
Cash on hand
$6.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$39.3K
Internet$6.7K
Top contributors
STATE OF OREGON$39.3K
STRATEGIES 360$9.3K
OHSU$8.6K
METRO WEST AMBULANCE$8.6K
US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES$7.2K
Mike EricksonH2OR06124 ↗
Receipts
$4.0M
Disburse
$4.0M
Cash on hand
$3.5K
Debts
$2.8M
Top industries
Real estate$11.8K
Internet$8.3K
Top contributors
TEC EQUIPMENT$14.5K
BPM REAL ESTATE GROUP$11.8K
LEAVENS HOLDINGS LLC$11.6K
CAPACITY COMMERCIAL GROUP$11.6K
DEVELOPMENT$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$21.3M
D side
$12.7M · 60%
R side
$8.6M · 40%
Top spender
PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC
For / against split
For Salinas $5.3M
Against Erickson $7.4M
Against Salinas $8.6M
For Erickson $20.9K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PROTECT OUR FUTURE PACR$5.4M25%against Andrea Salinas
DCCCD$4.2M20%against Mike Erickson
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$3.7M17%against Mike Erickson
CHC BOLD PACD$2.9M14%for Andrea Salinas
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$1.7M8%against Andrea Salinas
TAKE BACK OREGON PACR$1.5M7%against Andrea Salinas
OREGON RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY PACR$4.3K0%for Mike Erickson

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D3
Tossup3
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 10
DDHQ
Tossup
Nov 7
The Economist
Lean D
Oct 3
538
Lean D
Nov 3
Inside Elections
Tossup
Oct 20
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Sep 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks