Races · house · 2022 · Oregon
house · open seat
Jamie McLeod-Skinner vs Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 89% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.7 (10th pctile) to D+19.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 89% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +7.3
80% CI: R +4.7 → D +19.3 · win prob 89%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+2.1 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDJamie McLeod-Skinner0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RLori Chavez-DeRemer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-21Jamie McLeod-SkinnerH8OR02161 ↗
Receipts
$3.7M
Disburse
$3.6M
Cash on hand
$46.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Lori Chavez-DeRemerH2OR05209 ↗
Receipts
$2.6M
Disburse
$2.6M
Cash on hand
$9.5K
Debts
$395.0K
Top industries
Real estate$11.6K
Real estate · $11.6K
- Real Estate Performance Group · $11.6K
Individuals $11.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
INFO REQUESTED$47.9K
SJJD CONSULTING$14.5K
STANDARD TV & APPLIANCE$11.6K
REAL ESTATE PERFORMANCE GROUP$11.6K
CURATE, LLC$10.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$19.4M
D side
$8.6M · 44%
R side
$10.8M · 56%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $5.5M | 28% | against Jamie McLeod-Skinner |
| DEFEND US PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $4.4M | 23% | against Jamie McLeod-Skinner |
| WFP NATIONAL PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $4.1M | 21% | for Jamie McLeod-Skinner |
| DCCC party · boosts D
| D | $3.7M | 19% | against Lori Chavez-DeRemer |
| WFW ACTION FUND, INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $600.0K | 3% | against Jamie McLeod-Skinner |
| FIGHT CORPORATE MONOPOLIES PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $250.0K | 1% | against Lori Chavez-DeRemer |
| L PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $150.0K | 1% | for Jamie McLeod-Skinner |
| HEALTHCARE FREEDOM SUPER PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $137.5K | 1% | for Lori Chavez-DeRemer |
| VALUE IN ELECTING WOMEN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE super pac · boosts R
| R | $75.0K | 0% | for Lori Chavez-DeRemer |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Oct 31
- 538 · Nov 7
Tilt R1
Tilt R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Nov 2
Lean R2
Lean R · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 31
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Oct 25
The Cook Political Report
Lean RDDHQ
TossupThe Economist
Tossup538
TossupInside Elections
Tilt RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-21
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks