Races · house · 2022 · Oregon

house · open seat

Val Hoyle vs Alex Skarlatos

← Oregon house Oregon house →

Likely DD +13.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Hoyle (D)
1% Skarlatos (R)
Win probability
Val Hoyle99% (D)
Alex Skarlatos1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +13.7
80% CID+1.7 → D+25.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +13.7 · 80% CI D+1.7 → D+25.7
Actual result D+7.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+13.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+1.7 (10th pctile) to D+25.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +13.7

80% CI: D +1.7 → D +25.7 · win prob 99%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+7.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DVal Hoyle0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RAlex Skarlatos0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-18

Alex SkarlatosH0OR04107 ↗

Receipts

$4.5M

Disburse

$4.6M

Cash on hand

$61.7K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

BASSAIDAI INC.$13.9K

PATRICK LBR$11.7K

JAGUAR VENTURES$11.6K

DISCOUNT WINDOWS$11.6K

NET2VAULT$11.6K

Val HoyleH2OR04095 ↗

Receipts

$2.6M

Disburse

$2.6M

Cash on hand

$40.0K

Debts

$63.4K

Top industries

Education$18.5K

Health professionals$11.6K

Computers / electronics$6.1K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF OREGON$12.1K

ESTHETIXMD$11.6K

METRO WEST AMBULANCE$10.2K

KING ESTATE WINERY$9.3K

WVCI$6.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$6.0M

D side

$5.0M · 84%

R side

$963.1K · 16%

Top spender

DCCC

For / against split

For Hoyle $1.8M

Against Skarlatos $3.3M

Against Hoyle $921.6K

For Skarlatos $41.5K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
DCCC	D	$1.8M	30%	against Alex Skarlatos
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$1.5M	24%	against Alex Skarlatos
WEB3 FORWARD	D	$1.3M	22%	for Val Hoyle
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$732.8K	12%	against Val Hoyle
LCV VICTORY FUND	D	$227.1K	4%	for Val Hoyle
GREEN OREGON	R	$149.8K	2%	against Val Hoyle
ENGINEERS POLITICAL EDUCATION COMMITTEE (EPEC)/INTERNATIONAL UNION OF OPERATING ENGINEERS	D	$131.9K	2%	for Val Hoyle
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	R	$16.1K	0%	for Alex Skarlatos
THE GUARDIAN FUND	R	$12.7K	0%	for Alex Skarlatos
CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC	R	$7.1K	0%	for Alex Skarlatos

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D1

Lean D3

Tilt D1

Tossup1

The Cook Political Report

Lean D

Aug 4

DDHQ

Tossup

Oct 15

The Economist

Lean D

Oct 31

538

Likely D

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Nov 2

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Sep 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-18

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks