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Races · house · 2022 · Oregon
house · open seat

Earl Blumenauer vs Joanna Harbour

← Oregon houseOregon house →
Safe DD +46.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Blumenauer (D)
1% Harbour (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +46.8 · 80% CI D+34.8 → D+58.8
Actual result D+43.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+24) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+46.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+34.8 (10th pctile) to D+58.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +46.8
80% CI: D +34.8 → D +58.8 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+43.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DEarl Blumenauer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJoanna Harbour0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IDavid E Delk0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28
Earl BlumenauerH6OR03064 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$771.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Joanna HarbourH0OR03174 ↗
Receipts
$14.9K
Disburse
$8.3K
Cash on hand
$9.8K
Debts
$943.33
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$11.9K
D side
$7.7K · 64%
R side
$4.3K · 36%
Top spender
HUMANE SOCIETY LEGI…
For / against split
For Blumenauer $7.7K
Against Harbour $8.68
For Harbour $4.3K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HUMANE SOCIETY LEGISLATIVE FUNDD$7.6K64%for Earl Blumenauer
OREGON RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY PACR$4.1K35%for Joanna Harbour
RIGHT TO LIFE/OREGON PACR$115.851%for Joanna Harbour
ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUNDD$44.590%for Earl Blumenauer
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$17.360%for Earl Blumenauer
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Earl Blumenauer

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Oct 4
DDHQ
Safe D
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe D
Sep 27
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 13
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Oct 4

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks