Races · house · 2022 · Ohio
house · open seat
Craig Swartz vs Bob Latta
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+28.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.0 (10th pctile) to R+16.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +28.0
80% CI: R +40.0 → R +16.0 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+33.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRBob Latta0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCraig Swartz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-20Bob LattaH8OH05036 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$924.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Crop production$11.5K
Crop production · $11.5K
- Cooper Farms Hatchery · $5.8K
- Cooper Farms · $5.7K
Individuals $11.5K · PACs $0
Oil & gas$6.8K
Oil & gas · $6.8K
- Marathon Petroleum CO. · $6.8K
Individuals $6.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
NA$22.8K
DISH NETWORK$11.6K
MARATHON PETROLEUM CO.$6.8K
BARD MFG. CO.$5.8K
BARD MANUFACTURING CO$5.8K
Craig SwartzH2OH05062 ↗
Receipts
$55.0K
Disburse
$54.7K
Cash on hand
$288.57
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$2.9K
Health professionals · $2.9K
- Nayyer Ali Md INC · $2.9K
Individuals $2.9K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$400
Lawyers / law firms · $400
- Sumpter Law · $400
Individuals $400 · PACs $0
Education$200
Education · $200
- Educational Funding Group · $200
Individuals $200 · PACs $0
Top contributors
NAYYER ALI MD INC$2.9K
YOGA ON HIGH$1.0K
NUTRITION SOLUTIONS INC.$1.0K
SHOTSPOTTER INC$500
CONLON PUBLIC STRATEGIES$500
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.8K
D side
$141.02 · 8%
R side
$1.6K · 92%
Top spender
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $1.6K | 92% | for Bob Latta |
| #VOTEPROCHOICE PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $132.34 | 7% | for Craig Swartz |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $8.68 | 0% | against Bob Latta |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Mar 30
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Apr 21
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Apr 5
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks