Races · house · 2022 · Ohio

house · open seat

Emilia Sykes vs Madison Gesiotto Gilbert

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Lean DD +2.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
67% Sykes (D)
33% Gilbert (R)
Win probability
Emilia Sykes67% (D)
Madison Gesiotto Gilbert33% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +2.6
80% CIR+9.4 → D+14.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +2.6 · 80% CI R+9.4 → D+14.6
Actual result D+5.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 67% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+9.4 (10th pctile) to D+14.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 67% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +2.6

80% CI: R +9.4 → D +14.6 · win prob 67%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+5.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DEmilia Sykes0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMadison Gesiotto Gilbert0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-11

Madison Gesiotto GilbertH2OH09163 ↗

Receipts

$2.2M

Disburse

$2.2M

Cash on hand

$3.3K

Debts

$250.0K

Top industries

Computers / electronics$14.6K

Lawyers / law firms$11.6K

Real estate$6.3K

Oil & gas$5.8K

Top contributors

RED APPLE GROUP$14.6K

OHIO ATTORNEY GENERAL$11.6K

POGUE CONSTRUCTION$11.6K

BEREXCO LLC$11.6K

INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$9.7K

Emilia SykesH2OH13264 ↗

Receipts

$2.5M

Disburse

$2.5M

Cash on hand

$50.7K

Debts

Top industries

Internet$6.0K

Top contributors

GREYLOCK PARTNERS$8.7K

FOREST CITY ENTERPRISES$6.8K

GOOGLE$6.0K

MASS GENERAL$5.8K

THE J.M. SMUCKER CO.$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$41.5M

D side

$23.5M · 57%

R side

$17.9M · 43%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

For Sykes $1.8M

Against Gilbert $21.7M

Against Sykes $15.0M

For Gilbert $2.9M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$15.8M	38%	against Madison Gesiotto Gilbert
NRCC	R	$13.1M	32%	against Emilia Sykes
DCCC	D	$5.4M	13%	against Madison Gesiotto Gilbert
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$2.6M	6%	against Emilia Sykes
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$1.1M	3%	for Madison Gesiotto Gilbert
DMFI PAC	D	$684.0K	2%	against Madison Gesiotto Gilbert
OHIO ORGANIZING CAMPAIGN	D	$473.7K	1%	for Emilia Sykes
AMERICAN LEADERSHIP PAC	R	$211.5K	1%	against Emilia Sykes

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tossup3

Lean R1

Likely R2

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Mar 30

DDHQ

Likely R

Jul 19

The Economist

Tossup

Oct 31

538

Likely R

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Tossup

Aug 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-11

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks