NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2022 · Ohio
house · open seat

Greg Landsman vs Steve Chabot

← New York houseOhio house →
Tilt RR +0.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
46% Landsman (D)
54% Chabot (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +0.6 · 80% CI R+12.6 → D+11.4
Actual result D+5.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 54% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+0.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+12.6 (10th pctile) to D+11.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 54% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +0.6
80% CI: R +12.6 → D +11.4 · win prob 46%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+5.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RSteve Chabot0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DGreg Landsman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-11
Steve ChabotH8OH01043 ↗
Receipts
$2.2M
Disburse
$2.2M
Cash on hand
$39.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
NA$16.9K
JTM PROVISIONS$9.7K
CINTAS$9.3K
HENKLE-SCHUELER & ASSOC.$7.9K
AMERICAN FINANCIAL CORPORATION$7.1K
Greg LandsmanH2OH01194 ↗
Receipts
$2.8M
Disburse
$2.7M
Cash on hand
$68.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$32.5K
Real estate$29.0K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF CINCINNATI$24.9K
KATZ TELLER$23.3K
CHAVEZ PROPERTIES LLC$17.4K
MICHELMAN$11.9K
REMINGTON ROAD GROUP$11.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$18.1M
D side
$13.3M · 73%
R side
$4.9M · 27%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Landsman $979.7K
Against Chabot $12.3M
Against Landsman $3.6M
For Chabot $1.3M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$10.9M60%against Steve Chabot
NRCCR$2.2M12%against Greg Landsman
DCCCD$1.4M8%against Steve Chabot
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$1.3M7%for Steve Chabot
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$1.0M6%against Greg Landsman
OHIO ORGANIZING CAMPAIGND$417.0K2%for Greg Landsman
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$294.6K2%against Greg Landsman
ONE FOR ALL COMMITTEED$194.0K1%for Greg Landsman
DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.R$6.210%for Steve Chabot

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup4
Lean R1
Likely R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Mar 30
DDHQ
Tossup
Sep 30
The Economist
Tossup
Oct 31
538
Likely R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Tossup
Apr 21
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Tilt Rmodel
May 11, 2026Tilt Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-11
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks