Races · house · 2022 · New York

house · open seat

Laura Gillen vs Anthony D'Esposito

← New York house New York house →

Likely DD +7.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
88% Gillen (D)
12% D'Esposito (R)
Win probability
Laura Gillen88% (D)
Anthony D'Esposito12% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +7.1
80% CIR+4.9 → D+19.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +7.1 · 80% CI R+4.9 → D+19.1
Actual result Anthony P D’Esposito +3.5 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 88% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.9 (10th pctile) to D+19.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 88% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +7.1

80% CI: R +4.9 → D +19.1 · win prob 88%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Anthony P D’Esposito +3.5
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DLaura Gillen0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RAnthony D'Esposito0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08

Laura GillenH2NY04244 ↗

Receipts

$1.8M

Disburse

$1.8M

Cash on hand

$10.2K

Debts

Top industries

Casinos / gambling$8.7K

Securities & investment$8.7K

Top contributors

RUDIN MANAGEMENT$11.6K

KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & COMPANY$10.0K

NAPOLI SHKOLNIK$9.7K

METROCAPITAL$8.7K

SUTHERLAND CAPITAL MGMT. INC.$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.3M

D side

$856.8K · 37%

R side

$1.5M · 63%

Top spender

CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…

For / against split

For Gillen $856.8K

Against Gillen $1.5M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$1.5M	63%	against Laura Gillen
PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	D	$501.3K	22%	for Laura Gillen
CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE	D	$175.0K	8%	for Laura Gillen
OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL ACTION FUND	D	$95.2K	4%	for Laura Gillen
VALUE OUR DEMOCRACY	D	$80.0K	3%	for Laura Gillen

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D2

Lean D2

Tilt D1

Tossup1

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Oct 31

DDHQ

Lean D

Oct 19

The Economist

Likely D

Sep 27

FiveThirtyEight

Likely D

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Nov 2

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Oct 18

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks