Races · house · 2022 · New York

house · open seat

The Mellman Group vs George Santos

← New York house New York house →

Lean DD +2.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
67% Group (D)
33% Santos (R)
Win probability
The Mellman Group67% (D)
George Santos33% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +2.6
80% CIR+9.4 → D+14.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +2.6 · 80% CI R+9.4 → D+14.6
Actual result R+5.1 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 67% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+9.4 (10th pctile) to D+14.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 67% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +2.6

80% CI: R +9.4 → D +14.6 · win prob 67%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+5.1
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DThe Mellman Group0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RGeorge Santos0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-02

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.2M

D side

$2.2M · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

For Zimmerman $2.2M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$1.8M	83%	for Robert Zimmerman
PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	D	$1.4M	64%	for Josh Lafazan
1199 SERVICE EMPLOYEES INT'L UNION FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION FUND	D	$294.7K	13%	for Robert Zimmerman
EQUALITY PAC	D	$75.0K	3%	for Robert Zimmerman
DMFI PAC	D	$6.0K	0%	for Robert Zimmerman
INDIVISIBLE ACTION	D	$602.1	0%	for Robert Zimmerman

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D1

Tilt D1

Tossup1

Lean R1

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Oct 31

DDHQ

Lean D

Aug 9

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Oct 20

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-02

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks