Races · house · 2022 · New York
house · open seat
Joseph Morelle vs La'Ron Singletary
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+10) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.4 (10th pctile) to D+31.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +19.4
80% CI: D +7.4 → D +31.4 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | Joseph D. Morelle +11.3 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDJoseph Morelle0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RLa'Ron Singletary0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-07La'Ron SingletaryH2NY25082 ↗
Receipts
$710.1K
Disburse
$709.8K
Cash on hand
$268.63
Debts
$107.9K
Top industries
Crop production$10.2K
Crop production · $10.2K
- Admar Supply · $10.2K
Individuals $10.2K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$5.0K
Lawyers / law firms · $5.0K
- Cooley LLP · $5.0K
Individuals $5.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
SOLID SURFACES NY$11.6K
ADMAR SUPPLY$10.2K
ANKOM TECHNOLOGY$10.0K
FABER BUILDERS$6.3K
CHRISTIAN FLOORING$5.9K
Joseph MorelleH8NY25105 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$2.4M
Cash on hand
$52.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Pharma / health products$42.5K
Pharma / health products · $42.5K
- University of Rochester · $23.6K
- Rochester Regional Health · $19.0K
Individuals $42.5K · PACs $0
Beer / wine / liquor$17.5K
Beer / wine / liquor · $17.5K
- Constellation Brands · $17.5K
Individuals $17.5K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$8.7K
Lawyers / law firms · $8.7K
- The National Group LLP · $8.7K
Individuals $8.7K · PACs $0
Top contributors
L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES INC$33.6K
UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER$23.6K
ROCHESTER REGIONAL HEALTH$19.0K
CONSTELLATION BRANDS$17.5K
LECHASE CONSTRUCTION$13.9K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$624.9K
D side
$559.5K · 90%
R side
$65.5K · 10%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSE MAJORITY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $495.1K | 79% | against La'Ron Singletary |
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $64.5K | 10% | against Joseph Morelle |
| OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL ACTION FUND pac · boosts D
| D | $64.4K | 10% | for Joseph Morelle |
| NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $900 | 0% | for La'Ron Singletary |
| HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN EQUALITY VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $9 | 0% | for Joseph Morelle |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $8.68 | 0% | for Joseph Morelle |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- DDHQ · Jul 19
Likely D2
Likely D · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 31
- The Economist · Oct 31
The Cook Political Report
Likely DDDHQ
Safe DThe Economist
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-07
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks