Races · house · 2022 · New York
house · open seat
New York house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+30.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+42.9 (10th pctile) to R+18.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +30.9
80% CI: R +42.9 → R +18.9 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | Claudia Tenney +22.1 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · May 22
- The Economist · Sep 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · May 24
The Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks