Races · house · 2022 · NY
house · open seat

Matt Castelli vs Elise Stefanik

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Likely R — · 0 polls · 0 markets Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-27
Total IE spending
$565K
For candidates
$231K
Against candidates
$333K
Latest filing: 10/27/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
Elise Stefanik (R)
$231K for · $333K against
Cash on hand
$917K
Total raised (cycle)
$9.5M
Total spent
$10.6M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Matt Castelli (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$101K
Total raised (cycle)
$2.5M
Total spent
$2.4M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi