Races · house · 2022 · New York

house · open seat

Jackie Gordon vs Andrew Garbarino

← New York house New York house →

Likely RR +14.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Gordon (D)
99% Garbarino (R)
Win probability
Jackie Gordon1% (D)
Andrew Garbarino99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +14.9
80% CIR+26.9 → R+2.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +14.9 · 80% CI R+26.9 → R+2.9
Actual result R+15.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+14.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+26.9 (10th pctile) to R+2.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +14.9

80% CI: R +26.9 → R +2.9 · win prob 1%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+15.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RAndrew Garbarino0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DJackie Gordon0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-01

Andrew GarbarinoH0NY02234 ↗

Receipts

$3.6M

Disburse

$3.4M

Cash on hand

$297.1K

Debts

Top industries

Securities & investment$23.2K

Internet$8.7K

Top contributors

BLACKSTONE$23.2K

ALL COUNTY BLOCK & SUPPLY CORP$11.6K

SABIN METAL$8.7K

CWG$8.7K

FIRST LONG ISLAND INVESTORS$7.8K

Jackie GordonH0NY02192 ↗

Receipts

$1.8M

Disburse

$1.7M

Cash on hand

$31.6K

Debts

Top industries

Health professionals$23.2K

Securities & investment$21.0K

Real estate$8.7K

Top contributors

MASS GENERAL HOSPITAL$14.5K

RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES$12.6K

PATTERSON BELKNAP WEBB & TYLER$9.0K

OPTUM360$8.7K

GFP REAL ESTATE$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$1.4M

D side

$1.1M · 73%

R side

$385.1K · 27%

Top spender

CONGRESSIONAL BLACK…

For / against split

For Gordon $539.7K

Against Garbarino $511.9K

Against Gordon $26.3K

For Garbarino $358.8K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PAC	D	$539.7K	38%	for Jackie Gordon
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$291.9K	20%	against Andrew Garbarino
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$102.5K	7%	for Andrew Garbarino
VPP	D	$100.0K	7%	against Andrew Garbarino
USA FREEDOM FUND	D	$100.0K	7%	against Andrew Garbarino
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	R	$97.8K	7%	for Andrew Garbarino
THE GOVERNING MAJORITY FUND	R	$26.3K	2%	against Jackie Gordon
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Jackie Gordon
HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN EQUALITY VOTES	D	$9	0%	for Jackie Gordon
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$8.68	0%	for Jackie Gordon

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean R1

Likely R4

Safe R1

The Cook Political Report

Likely R

May 22

DDHQ

Likely R

Aug 23

The Economist

Likely R

Sep 27

FiveThirtyEight

Safe R

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Lean R

May 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely R

May 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel

Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-01

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks