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Races · house · 2022 · New York
house · open seat

Josh Riley vs Marc Molinaro

← New York houseNew York house →
Likely DD +6.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
86% Riley (D)
14% Molinaro (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +6.5 · 80% CI R+5.5 → D+18.5
Actual result R+2.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 86% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+6.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+5.5 (10th pctile) to D+18.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 86% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +6.5
80% CI: R +5.5 → D +18.5 · win prob 86%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+2.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DJosh Riley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMarc Molinaro0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08
Marc MolinaroH2NY19127 ↗
Receipts
$2.5M
Disburse
$2.4M
Cash on hand
$62.0K
Debts
$59.3K
Top industries
Oil & gas$31.3K
Internet$11.6K
Top contributors
GAS LAND PETROLEUM$31.3K
MILLBROOK CAPITAL$29.0K
AROLD CONSTRUCTION$19.4K
ASHRAF HOLDINGS LLC$17.4K
CRYSTAL WINDOW & DOOR SYSTEMS LTD.$17.4K
Josh RileyH8NY22177 ↗
Receipts
$4.2M
Disburse
$4.2M
Cash on hand
$17.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$179.4K
Computers / electronics$43.8K
Education$23.0K
Internet$20.4K
Top contributors
BOIES SCHILLER FLEXNER LLP$119.0K
APPLE$43.8K
JENNER & BLOCK, LLP$40.3K
PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES$32.1K
JENNER & BLOCK$30.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$39.9M
D side
$23.0M · 58%
R side
$16.8M · 42%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Riley $1.0M
Against Molinaro $22.0M
Against Riley $15.8M
For Molinaro $1.0M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$13.6M34%against Marc Molinaro
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$9.7M24%against Josh Riley
DCCCD$9.0M22%against Marc Molinaro
NRCCR$7.0M17%against Josh Riley
1199 SERVICE EMPLOYEES INT'L UNION FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION FUNDD$198.6K0%for Josh Riley
RURAL FREEDOM NETWORKD$160.0K0%for Josh Riley
TZEDEK PACR$62.3K0%for Marc Molinaro
GOVERNING MAJORITY EDUCATION FUNDR$51.8K0%for Marc Molinaro

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup2
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
May 22
DDHQ
Tossup
Nov 3
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks