Races · house · 2022 · New York

house · open seat

Sean Patrick Maloney vs Colin Schmitt

← New York house New York house →

Likely DD +10.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
95% Maloney (D)
5% Schmitt (R)
Win probability
Sean Patrick Maloney95% (D)
Colin Schmitt5% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +10.1
80% CIR+1.9 → D+22.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +10.1 · 80% CI R+1.9 → D+22.1
Actual result Pat Ryan +2.3 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 95% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.9 (10th pctile) to D+22.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +10.1

80% CI: R +1.9 → D +22.1 · win prob 95%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Pat Ryan +2.3
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DSean Patrick Maloney0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RColin Schmitt0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08

Colin SchmittH2NY18087 ↗

Receipts

$2.1M

Disburse

$2.1M

Cash on hand

$2.4K

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$17.4K

Internet$8.7K

Oil & gas$8.7K

Top contributors

ENSON GROUP$17.4K

PAGANO COMPANY$11.8K

HYDROVAC EXCAVATING$9.5K

KATTEN MUCHIN ROSENMAN LLP$8.7K

SABIN METAL$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$21.7M

D side

$21.3M · 98%

R side

$436.5K · 2%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

Against Schmitt $21.3M

For Schmitt $436.5K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$10.0M	46%	against Colin Schmitt
DCCC	D	$6.0M	28%	against Colin Schmitt
VOTEVETS	D	$4.4M	20%	against Colin Schmitt
AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES P E O P L E	D	$819.8K	4%	against Colin Schmitt
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$289.9K	1%	for Colin Schmitt

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D1

Lean D3

Tilt D1

The Cook Political Report

Lean D

Aug 23

DDHQ

Likely D

Oct 20

FiveThirtyEight

Lean D

Sep 21

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Oct 20

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Aug 23

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks