Races · house · 2022 · New York
house · open seat
Sean Patrick Maloney vs Mike Lawler
Where this race stands
VerifiedTossup · model 80% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.9 (10th pctile) to D+17.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 80% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +5.1
80% CI: R +6.9 → D +17.1 · win prob 80%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | Michael V Lawler +0.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDSean Patrick Maloney0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMike Lawler0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-06Sean Patrick MaloneyH2NY22139 ↗
Receipts
$6.1M
Disburse
$6.8M
Cash on hand
$112.3K
Debts
$142.6K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$23.7K
Lawyers / law firms · $23.7K
- Sullivan & Cromwell LLP · $23.7K
- Paul Weiss · $18.9K
Individuals $23.7K · PACs $0
Top contributors
SULLIVAN & CROMWELL LLP$23.7K
PAUL WEISS$18.9K
BERKSHIRE PARTNERS$14.5K
BLOOMBERG LP$12.6K
INVARIANT$12.1K
Mike LawlerH2NY17162 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.5M
Cash on hand
$38.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$5.8K
Internet · $5.8K
- Sabin Metal · $5.8K
Individuals $5.8K · PACs $0
Health professionals$5.8K
Health professionals · $5.8K
- Supreme Medical Management · $5.8K
Individuals $5.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
ATTEMPTING$13.3K
CLARKSTOWN$6.5K
MAZEL DEVELOPERS LLC$5.8K
UNITED REFINING$5.8K
SABIN METAL$5.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$31.7M
D side
$11.4M · 36%
R side
$20.3M · 64%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $15.1M | 48% | against Sean Patrick Maloney |
| VOTEVETS super pac · boosts D
| D | $7.3M | 23% | against Mike Lawler |
| NRCC party · boosts R
| R | $5.2M | 16% | against Sean Patrick Maloney |
| PA LAWYER FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.0M | 6% | for Sean Patrick Maloney |
| OUR HUDSON PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $907.0K | 3% | against Mike Lawler |
| DCCC party · boosts D
| D | $425.0K | 1% | against Mike Lawler |
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts D
| D | $405.2K | 1% | for Sean Patrick Maloney |
| DMFI PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $213.7K | 1% | for Sean Patrick Maloney |
| NO SURRENDER NY super pac · boosts D
| D | $58 | 0% | against Mike Lawler |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- DDHQ · Oct 15
Lean D2
Lean D · 2 raters
- FiveThirtyEight · Oct 25
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · May 24
Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 23
The Cook Political Report
TossupDDHQ
Likely DFiveThirtyEight
Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-06
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks