Races · house · 2022 · New York

house · open seat

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez vs Tina Forte

← New York house New York house →

Safe DD +38.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Ocasio-Cortez (D)
1% Forte (R)
Win probability
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez99% (D)
Tina Forte1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +38.1
80% CID+26.1 → D+50.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +38.1 · 80% CI D+26.1 → D+50.1
Actual result D+36.1 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+19) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+38.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+26.1 (10th pctile) to D+50.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +38.1

80% CI: D +26.1 → D +50.1 · win prob 99%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+36.1
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet

DAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RTina Forte0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

IDesi Cuellar0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-07

Alexandria Ocasio-CortezH8NY15148 ↗

Receipts

$12.5M

Disburse

$11.3M

Cash on hand

$5.2M

Debts

Top industries

Internet$35.9K

Computers / electronics$29.3K

Health professionals$9.4K

Top contributors

GOOGLE$27.0K

MICROSOFT$10.6K

FREELANCE$9.9K

APPLE$9.5K

UMD$9.4K

Desi CuellarH2NY14094 ↗

Receipts

$273.0K

Disburse

$271.6K

Cash on hand

$1.4K

Debts

$26.4K

Top industries

Real estate$5.0K

Health professionals$800

Top contributors

ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE$5.0K

EJME$1.0K

FOURSQUARE HEALTHCARE$800

DISABLED VET$600

TEMPEST CAPITAL LTD$585

Tina ForteOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$1.5M

Disburse

$1.5M

Cash on hand

$5.0K

Debts

Top industries

Govt employees$5.3K

Insurance$4.0K

Top contributors

RELIABLE$8.7K

GCP CAPITAL PARTNERS$5.8K

US ARMY$5.3K

PENCOV SERVICE IND.$5.0K

HOUSEWIFE$4.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$286.9K

D side

$4.8K · 2%

R side

$282.1K · 98%

Top spender

HONORING AMERICAN L…

For / against split

For Ocasio-Cortez $4.8K

Against Ocasio-Cortez $282.1K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HONORING AMERICAN LAW ENFORCEMENT PAC	R	$127.5K	44%	against Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR A SAFER AMERICA PAC	R	$127.5K	44%	against Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	R	$26.7K	9%	against Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
WAY TO LEAD PAC	D	$4.2K	1%	for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
CONCERNED CITIZEN	R	$786.98	0%	against Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D3

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

May 22

The Economist

Safe D

Sep 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

May 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-07

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks