NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2022 · New York
house · open seat

Max Rose vs Nicole Malliotakis

← New York houseNew York house →
Safe RR +21.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Rose (D)
99% Malliotakis (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +21.2 · 80% CI R+33.2 → R+9.2
Actual result R+19.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+21.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+33.2 (10th pctile) to R+9.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +21.2
80% CI: R +33.2 → R +9.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+19.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RNicole Malliotakis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMax Rose0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-27
Nicole MalliotakisH0NY11078 ↗
Receipts
$4.6M
Disburse
$4.6M
Cash on hand
$50.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$21.3K
Computers / electronics$20.3K
Securities & investment$14.5K
Education$10.5K
Top contributors
MERIDIAN PROPERTIES$21.3K
RED APPLE GROUP$20.3K
BLACKSTONE$14.5K
WCAS$12.6K
STEPHENS INC.$11.6K
Max RoseH2NY11140 ↗
Receipts
$4.1M
Disburse
$4.1M
Cash on hand
$7.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$24.9K
Education$14.5K
Real estate$14.5K
Top contributors
ZAREMBA BROWN$20.2K
ST. GEORGE'S UNIVERSITY$14.5K
GFP REAL ESTATE$14.5K
MONADNOCK CONSTRUCTION, INC.$14.5K
BERKSHIRE PARTNERS, LLC$14.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$21.2K
D side
$18.6K · 88%
R side
$2.6K · 12%
Top spender
MEIDASTOUCH
For / against split
For Rose $9.9K
Against Malliotakis $8.7K
For Malliotakis $2.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
MEIDASTOUCHD$9.9K47%for Max Rose
DEFEAT SEDITIONISTSD$8.7K41%against Nicole Malliotakis
THE GUARDIAN FUNDR$2.3K11%for Nicole Malliotakis
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$302.481%for Nicole Malliotakis
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.680%against Nicole Malliotakis

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R2
Safe R1
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Aug 4
The Economist
Likely R
Sep 27
FiveThirtyEight
Safe R
Oct 19

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-27
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks