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Races · house · 2022 · New York
house · open seat

Bridget Fleming vs Nick LaLota

← Nevada houseNew York house →
Likely RR +9.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
6% Fleming (D)
94% LaLota (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +9.3 · 80% CI R+21.3 → D+2.7
Actual result R+5.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 94% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+4) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+9.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+21.3 (10th pctile) to D+2.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 94% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +9.3
80% CI: R +21.3 → D +2.7 · win prob 6%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+5.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RNick LaLota0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DBridget Fleming0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-27
Nick LaLotaH2NY01190 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.5M
Cash on hand
$77.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Insurance$12.9K
Computers / electronics$8.7K
Health professionals$6.0K
Top contributors
PIA CAPITAL$17.4K
AETNA SERVICES$12.9K
UNITED PUBLIC ADJUSTERS APPRAISERS, I$11.6K
RED APPLE GROUP$8.7K
THE LANDTEK GROUP$8.7K
Bridget FlemingH0NY01202 ↗
Receipts
$2.7M
Disburse
$2.7M
Cash on hand
$22.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$31.4K
Securities & investment$10.4K
Top contributors
STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY$25.1K
NAPOLI SHKOLNIK$11.6K
LAZARD$10.9K
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES$10.4K
EDWINA VON GAL + CO$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.5M
D side
$1.2M · 79%
R side
$314.3K · 21%
Top spender
STAND FOR NEW YORK …
For / against split
For Fleming $165.9K
Against LaLota $1.0M
Against Fleming $96.8K
For LaLota $217.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
STAND FOR NEW YORK COMMITTEED$730.8K49%against Nick LaLota
CRYPTO FREEDOM PACD$287.4K19%against Nick LaLota
AMERICAN LEADERSHIP PACR$175.7K12%for Nick LaLota
1199 SERVICE EMPLOYEES INT'L UNION FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION FUNDD$164.2K11%for Bridget Fleming
SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PACR$40.0K3%for Nick LaLota
THE GOVERNING MAJORITY FUNDR$26.3K2%against Bridget Fleming
SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICAR$21.0K1%for Nick LaLota
PROTECT THE VOTED$1.5K0%for Bridget Fleming
MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTIOND$127.080%for Bridget Fleming

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R2
Likely R1
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
May 22
DDHQ
Likely R
Jul 19
The Economist
Lean R
Sep 27

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-27
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks