Races · house · 2022 · Nevada

house · open seat

Susie Lee vs April Becker

← Nevada house Nevada house →

Likely DD +5.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
80% Lee (D)
20% Becker (R)
Win probability
Susie Lee80% (D)
April Becker20% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +5.0
80% CIR+7.0 → D+17.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +5.0 · 80% CI R+7.0 → D+17.0
Actual result D+4.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 80% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+7.0 (10th pctile) to D+17.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 80% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +5.0

80% CI: R +7.0 → D +17.0 · win prob 80%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+4.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DSusie Lee0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RApril Becker0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-15

Susie LeeH6NV04020 ↗

Receipts

$6.3M

Disburse

$6.3M

Cash on hand

$37.4K

Debts

Top industries

Casinos / gambling$25.6K

Securities & investment$8.7K

Health professionals$8.7K

Top contributors

CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT$13.5K

WYNN RESORTS$12.2K

LAUDER PARTNERS, LLC$11.6K

JREI$11.6K

CHARLES & LYNN SCHUSTERMAN PHIL$11.6K

April BeckerH2NV03161 ↗

Receipts

$2.5M

Disburse

$2.4M

Cash on hand

$40.4K

Debts

Top industries

Casinos / gambling$14.1K

Securities & investment$8.7K

Oil & gas$8.7K

Education$6.0K

Top contributors

STATION CASINOS LLC$14.1K

INNOVATIVE PAIN CARE CENTER$11.6K

EQUESTRIANLIFE$8.7K

BLACKSTONE$8.7K

HIGH DESERT PETROLEUM INC$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$11.6M

D side

$3.1M · 26%

R side

$8.6M · 74%

Top spender

CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…

For / against split

For Lee $818.8K

Against Becker $2.3M

Against Lee $7.3M

For Becker $1.3M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$6.3M	54%	against Susie Lee
ALL FOR OUR COUNTRY	R	$2.0M	17%	for April Becker
DCCC	D	$1.9M	16%	against April Becker
SHIELD PAC	D	$360.9K	3%	for Susie Lee
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$346.7K	3%	against April Becker
WE VOTE WE WIN	D	$251.9K	2%	for Susie Lee
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$227.4K	2%	for April Becker
EDF ACTION VOTES	D	$42.8K	0%	against April Becker

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D1

Tilt D1

Tossup3

Lean R1

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Apr 19

DDHQ

Tossup

Nov 1

The Economist

Tossup

Nov 1

538

Lean D

Oct 13

Inside Elections

Tilt D

May 19

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-15

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks