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Races · house · 2022 · Nevada
house · open seat

Elizabeth Krause vs Mark Amodei

← Nevada houseNevada house →
Safe RR +17.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Krause (D)
99% Amodei (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +17.0 · 80% CI R+29.0 → R+5.0
Actual result R+21.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+17.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+29.0 (10th pctile) to R+5.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +17.0
80% CI: R +29.0 → R +5.0 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+21.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMark Amodei0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DElizabeth Krause0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-29
Mark AmodeiH2NV02395 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$279.7K
Debts
$9.0K
Top industries
Casinos / gambling$14.5K
Oil & gas$8.7K
Real estate$5.9K
Top contributors
PEPPERMILL CASINO$14.5K
CASHELL ENTERPRISES$8.7K
DI LORETO CONSTRUCTION AND DEV$8.4K
HARTMAN & HARTMAN$8.1K
PORTER GROUP$7.4K
Elizabeth KrauseH2NV02551 ↗
Receipts
$52.2K
Disburse
$52.2K
Cash on hand
$49.63
Debts
$725
Top industries
Education$2.7K
Top contributors
SEIU$5.0K
ART ADVISORS LLC$2.9K
UNIVERSITY CENTER OF SOUTHERN NEVADA$2.1K
CEO$1.0K
AFFILIATED HIGH SCHOOL OF PEKING UNIVE$600

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$263.3K
D side
$148.4K · 56%
R side
$114.9K · 44%
Top spender
FOR OUR FUTURE
For / against split
For Krause $109.9K
Against Amodei $38.5K
For Amodei $114.9K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
FOR OUR FUTURED$126.8K48%for Elizabeth Krause
AMERICAN POLICE AND TROOPERS COALITION PACR$96.1K37%for Mark Amodei
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUNDR$14.5K6%for Mark Amodei
WORKERS VOTED$14.1K5%for Elizabeth Krause
FEMINIST MAJORITYD$7.3K3%for Elizabeth Krause
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$4.3K2%for Mark Amodei
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)D$155.670%for Elizabeth Krause

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 17
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 27
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
Dec 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 16

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-29
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks