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Races · house · 2022 · New Mexico
house · open seat

Melanie Stansbury vs Michelle Garcia Holmes

← New Jersey houseNew Mexico house →
Likely DD +14.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Stansbury (D)
1% Holmes (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +14.4 · 80% CI D+2.4 → D+26.4
Actual result D+11.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+7) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+14.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+2.4 (10th pctile) to D+26.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +14.4
80% CI: D +2.4 → D +26.4 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+11.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMelanie Stansbury0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMichelle Garcia Holmes0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28
Melanie StansburyH2NM01144 ↗
Receipts
$3.6M
Disburse
$3.6M
Cash on hand
$11.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$19.4K
Govt employees$7.4K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO$19.4K
UNM$15.5K
THORNBURG INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT$13.6K
CALCULEX INC.$8.7K
CASSIDY & ASSOCIATES$8.5K
Michelle Garcia HolmesH0NM01189 ↗
Receipts
$391.7K
Disburse
$401.7K
Cash on hand
$1.7K
Debts
$4.2K
Top industries
Oil & gas$5.8K
Education$2.9K
Top contributors
JUDAH OIL$5.8K
JAGUAR PRECISION MACHINE$4.0K
SUMMIT COMPANIES$2.9K
MALE$2.9K
VAN DYKE SOFTWARE$2.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$149.5K
D side
$104.4K · 70%
R side
$45.1K · 30%
Top spender
OPERATION 147
For / against split
For Stansbury $104.4K
Against Holmes $8.68
Against Stansbury $45.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
OPERATION 147D$40.0K27%for Melanie Stansbury
THE FREEDOM FORWARD FUNDR$39.1K26%against Melanie Stansbury
WFP NATIONAL PACD$20.1K13%for Melanie Stansbury
DREAMS IN ACTION NMD$16.4K11%for Melanie Stansbury
PROTECT THE VOTED$12.0K8%for Melanie Stansbury
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.680%against Michelle Garcia Holmes

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
Likely D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Apr 26
DDHQ
Likely D
Jul 19
The Economist
Likely D
Sep 27
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Apr 21
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Apr 26

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks