NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2022 · New Jersey
house · open seat

Bill Pascrell vs Billy Prempeh

← New Jersey houseNew Jersey house →
Likely DD +9.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
94% Pascrell (D)
6% Prempeh (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +9.5 · 80% CI R+2.5 → D+21.5
Actual result D+11.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 94% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.5 (10th pctile) to D+21.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 94% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +9.5
80% CI: R +2.5 → D +21.5 · win prob 94%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+11.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
DBill Pascrell0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBilly Prempeh0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ILea Sherman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LSean Armstrong0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-04
Billy PrempehH0NJ09200 ↗
Receipts
$309.1K
Disburse
$293.0K
Cash on hand
$29.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$2.9K
Pharma / health products$2.5K
Health professionals$1.4K
Real estate$1.3K
Top contributors
HEARTLAND LLC$8.0K
NANCIE BROWN ASSOCIATES$3.0K
ATLANTIC HEALTH SYSTEM$2.9K
SMITH NEPHEW$2.9K
NOVARTIS$2.5K
Bill PascrellH6NJ08118 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$1.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$785.81
D side
$27.36 · 3%
R side
$758.45 · 97%
Top spender
NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO…
For / against split
For Pascrell $18.68
Against Prempeh $8.68
For Prempeh $758.45
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE FEDERAL PACR$758.4597%for Billy Prempeh
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$17.362%against Billy Prempeh
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$101%for Bill Pascrell

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 14
DDHQ
Safe D
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe D
Sep 27
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jan 9
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jan 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-04
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks