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Races · house · 2022 · New Jersey
house · open seat

Tom Malinowski vs Tom Kean Jr.

← New Jersey houseNew Jersey house →
Tilt DD +1.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
60% Malinowski (D)
40% Jr. (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +1.6 · 80% CI R+10.4 → D+13.6
Actual result R+2.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 60% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+10.4 (10th pctile) to D+13.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 60% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +1.6
80% CI: R +10.4 → D +13.6 · win prob 60%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+2.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DTom Malinowski0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RTom Kean Jr.0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28
Tom MalinowskiH8NJ07223 ↗
Receipts
$9.0M
Disburse
$9.0M
Cash on hand
$17.1K
Debts
$25.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Tom Kean Jr.H0NJ07261 ↗
Receipts
$4.5M
Disburse
$4.5M
Cash on hand
$94.1K
Debts
$8.3K
Top industries
Securities & investment$32.2K
Education$11.6K
Top contributors
BERGEN ANESTHESIA GROUP$24.2K
BLACKSTONE$22.3K
NORTHEAST PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP$12.6K
WATERFRONT MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS HC LLC$11.6K
RED ROCK RESORTS$11.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$8.8M
D side
$2.9M · 33%
R side
$5.9M · 67%
Top spender
NRCC
For / against split
For Malinowski $1.4M
Against Jr. $1.5M
Against Malinowski $5.7M
For Jr. $235.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NRCCR$2.8M32%against Tom Malinowski
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.1M24%against Tom Malinowski
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$1.4M16%against Tom Kean Jr.
MODERATE PARTY INDEPENDENT FUNDD$938.9K11%for Tom Malinowski
DEFEND US PACR$875.4K10%against Tom Malinowski
WFP NATIONAL PACD$352.5K4%for Tom Malinowski
FIREFIGHTERS SUPPORT ASSOCIATION PACR$57.5K1%for Tom Kean Jr.
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$52.3K1%for Tom Kean Jr.

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup2
Tilt R1
Lean R3
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Jun 14
DDHQ
Tossup
Oct 5
The Economist
Tossup
Sep 27
538
Lean R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Tilt R
Oct 20
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Jan 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks