Races · house · 2022 · New Jersey
house · open seat
Frank Pallone vs Sue Kiley
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+13.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+1.3 (10th pctile) to D+25.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +13.3
80% CI: D +1.3 → D +25.3 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+16.5 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yetDFrank Pallone0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RSue Kiley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LTara Fisher0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IInder Soni0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28Sue KileyH2NJ06228 ↗
Receipts
$399.5K
Disburse
$399.5K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$4.0K
Education · $4.0K
- Melcer Family Limited Partnership · $4.0K
Individuals $4.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
RAY CATENA AUTO GROUP$11.6K
VIKING ASSOCIATES$5.8K
911INFORM$5.8K
COASTAL AIR CONDITIONING INC$5.8K
GRUNIN HOLDINGS$5.8K
Frank PalloneH8NJ03073 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$3.8M
Cash on hand
$2.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$25.4K
Health professionals · $25.4K
- Greater New York Hospital Association · $13.8K
- Leon Medical Centers Health Plans · $11.6K
Individuals $25.4K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$10.8K
Lawyers / law firms · $10.8K
- Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP · $10.8K
Individuals $10.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
DISH NETWORK$24.9K
CAPITOL COUNSEL LLC$16.3K
CME ASSOCIATES$14.5K
GREATER NEW YORK HOSPITAL ASSOCIATION$13.8K
LEON MEDICAL CENTERS HEALTH PLANS$11.6K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$805.65
D side
$47.2 · 6%
R side
$758.45 · 94%
Top spender
NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE FEDERAL PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $758.45 | 94% | for Sue Kiley |
| ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $28.52 | 4% | for Frank Pallone |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 1% | for Frank Pallone |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $8.68 | 1% | for Frank Pallone |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D6
Safe D · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jun 14
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Nov 6
- 538 · Sep 28
- Inside Elections · Jan 9
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jan 3
The Cook Political Report
Safe DDDHQ
Safe DThe Economist
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks