Races · house · 2022 · New Jersey

house · open seat

Josh Gottheimer vs Frank Pallotta

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Likely DD +9.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
95% Gottheimer (D)
5% Pallotta (R)
Win probability
Josh Gottheimer95% (D)
Frank Pallotta5% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +9.9
80% CIR+2.1 → D+21.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +9.9 · 80% CI R+2.1 → D+21.9
Actual result D+10.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 95% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.1 (10th pctile) to D+21.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +9.9

80% CI: R +2.1 → D +21.9 · win prob 95%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+10.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet

DJosh Gottheimer0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RFrank Pallotta0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

LJeremy Marcus0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

ITrevor Ferrigno0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-04

Frank PallottaH0NJ05174 ↗

Receipts

$982.8K

Disburse

$1.0M

Cash on hand

$2.6K

Debts

Top industries

Real estate$11.6K

Securities & investment$6.5K

Computers / electronics$5.8K

Top contributors

GREYWOLF CAPITAL$11.6K

MORGAN STANLEY$6.5K

FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP$6.3K

TULFRAREALTY$5.8K

APPLE INC$5.8K

Josh GottheimerH6NJ05171 ↗

Receipts

$8.9M

Disburse

$3.9M

Cash on hand

$13.3M

Debts

Top industries

Securities & investment$109.8K

TV / movies / music$18.1K

Top contributors

BLACKSTONE$78.1K

KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P.$58.9K

WELSH, CARSON, ANDERSON & STOWE$31.8K

STANDARD INDUSTRIES$31.7K

APOLLO MANAGEMENT$31.7K

Trevor FerrignoOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$2.7K

Disburse

$2.1K

Cash on hand

$563.42

Debts

$200

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

WSP USA$2.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$9.1M

D side

$9.0M · 99%

R side

$71.3K · 1%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

For Gottheimer $310.1K

Against Pallotta $8.7M

Against Gottheimer $28.3K

For Pallotta $43.0K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$7.8M	86%	against Frank Pallotta
CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE	D	$890.0K	10%	against Frank Pallotta
OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL ACTION FUND	D	$306.8K	3%	against Frank Pallotta
LV STRONG	R	$70.3K	1%	for Frank Pallotta
HUMANE SOCIETY LEGISLATIVE FUND	D	$5.1K	0%	for Josh Gottheimer
NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE FEDERAL PAC	R	$758.45	0%	for Frank Pallotta
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC	R	$302.48	0%	against Josh Gottheimer
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Josh Gottheimer

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D2

Likely D4

The Cook Political Report

Likely D

Jun 14

DDHQ

Safe D

Jul 19

The Economist

Likely D

Oct 31

538

Likely D

Oct 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jan 9

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely D

Jan 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-04

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks