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Races · house · 2022 · New Jersey
house · open seat

Andy Kim vs Bob Healey

← New Jersey houseNew Jersey house →
Likely DD +11.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
97% Kim (D)
3% Healey (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +11.1 · 80% CI R+0.9 → D+23.1
Actual result D+11.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 97% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+11.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+0.9 (10th pctile) to D+23.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 97% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +11.1
80% CI: R +0.9 → D +23.1 · win prob 97%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+11.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DAndy Kim0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBob Healey0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28
Andy KimH8NJ03206 ↗
Receipts
$7.1M
Disburse
$7.5M
Cash on hand
$162.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$51.9K
Internet$17.9K
Securities & investment$11.6K
Top contributors
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY$28.6K
UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA$23.3K
GOOGLE$17.9K
RAJ ASSOCIATES$11.7K
CENTERVIEW PARTNERS$11.6K
Bob HealeyH2NJ03258 ↗
Receipts
$4.7M
Disburse
$4.7M
Cash on hand
$61.0K
Debts
$2.8M
Top industries
Commercial banks$6.8K
Top contributors
GALATI YACHT SALES$59.5K
VIKING YACHT COMPANY$32.6K
TC SERVICES INC$11.6K
LUNDS FISHERIES$11.6K
UBS$10.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.0M
D side
$418.6K · 21%
R side
$1.6M · 79%
Top spender
GARDEN STATE ADVANC…
For / against split
For Kim $313.7K
Against Healey $104.9K
For Healey $1.6M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
GARDEN STATE ADVANCE, INC.R$1.6M79%for Bob Healey
CLIMATE POWER ACTIOND$215.7K11%for Andy Kim
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$104.9K5%against Bob Healey
WFP NATIONAL PACD$32.0K2%for Andy Kim
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$30.5K2%for Andy Kim
NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE FEDERAL PACR$758.450%for Bob Healey

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D4
Lean D1
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Oct 31
DDHQ
Safe D
Nov 2
The Economist
Likely D
Sep 27
538
Likely D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Likely D
Nov 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jan 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks