Races · house · 2022 · New Hampshire

house · open seat

Annie Kuster vs Robert Burns

← New Hampshire house New Jersey house →

Likely DD +8.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
93% Kuster (D)
7% Burns (R)
Win probability
Annie Kuster93% (D)
Robert Burns7% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +8.6
80% CIR+3.4 → D+20.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +8.6 · 80% CI R+3.4 → D+20.6
Actual result D+11.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 93% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+8.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.4 (10th pctile) to D+20.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 93% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +8.6

80% CI: R +3.4 → D +20.6 · win prob 93%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+11.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DAnnie Kuster0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RRobert Burns0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28

Robert BurnsH2NH00025 ↗

Receipts

$401.6K

Disburse

$399.3K

Cash on hand

$2.3K

Debts

Top industries

Crop production$1.3K

Top contributors

BURNS AUTOMAITON$3.1K

UNAKA CO., INC.$2.9K

MESTEK, INC.$2.9K

BURNS AUTOMATION$2.9K

KASPER ENTEROPRISES, INC$2.5K

Annie KusterH0NH02181 ↗

Receipts

$4.4M

Disburse

$5.4M

Cash on hand

$146.1K

Debts

Top industries

Education$32.5K

Govt employees$18.1K

Top contributors

N.A.$31.1K

NA$21.4K

STATE OF NH$18.1K

DARTMOUTH COLLEGE$17.0K

HARVARD UNIVERSITY$15.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.6M

D side

$2.6M · 98%

R side

$53.1K · 2%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

For Kuster $427.8K

Against Burns $2.2M

Against Kuster $50.0K

For Burns $3.1K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$1.1M	41%	against Robert Burns
DEMOCRATS SERVE	D	$1.0M	38%	against Robert Burns
CULAC THE PAC OF CREDIT UNION NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	D	$256.3K	10%	for Annie Kuster
CLIMATE POWER ACTION	D	$86.2K	3%	for Annie Kuster
LCV VICTORY FUND	D	$67.4K	3%	for Annie Kuster
AMERICAN LIBERTY ACTION PAC	D	$65.0K	2%	against Robert Burns
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$50.0K	2%	against Annie Kuster
FEMINIST MAJORITY	D	$8.0K	0%	for Annie Kuster
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	R	$3.1K	0%	for Robert Burns
DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	R	$2.06	0%	for Robert Burns

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D4

Lean D2

The Cook Political Report

Lean D

Sep 13

DDHQ

Likely D

Nov 1

The Economist

Lean D

Nov 6

538

Likely D

Oct 17

Inside Elections

Likely D

Jun 6

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely D

Oct 18

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks